Cloud Computing in the Trough of Disillusionment??
The reputed analyst group Gartner has released its 2010 'Hype Cycle' graph for emerging technologies, which lists Cloud Computing as having reached the peak of its hype cycle and thus poised for moving into user disillusionment (Link).
For the uninitiated, a hype cycle (a term coined by Gartner) is a graphic representation of the maturity, adoption and social application of specific technologies.
According to Gartner reps, Cloud computing has "tipped over the peak and will soon experience disillusionment among enterprise users..".
The next phase on the cycle following the peak of Hype is of course the Trough of Disillusionment where they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. This is usually accompanied by lower interest in the press and mass media thus leading to the veritable through in the interest in the technology.
Those familiar with the Hype Cycles in the past will note that most technologies usually drop off the the emerging technologies hype cycle after a year or two.
As an analyst and practitioner of Cloud Computing, I believe that it might be a bit pre-mature to place Cloud Computing on the wrong side of the peak on the hype cycle. Let me explain why.
- The penetration is low, but the demand is real.
The benefits of Cloud Computing have always been and still remain very tangible benefits to the business case such as lowering TCO, providing on-tap resources and metered usage. However, the penetration of the technology ( and hence the adoption) has been low in the major emerging markets of Asia due to various factors ranging from limitations of broadband facilities to government regulations.
According to an article in NY Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/11/technology/11cloudasia.html ) , the research firm IDC estimates that the market for cloud computing in Asia outside Japan will grow to about $1.3 billion this year and will continue expanding at a rate of about 40 percent a year until 2014. Given that the small and medium enterprises have the most to gain and face fewer adoption hurdles, once the basic hygiene factors are in place, I believe this market will explode.
This explosion will change the game in ways that are inconceivable in the limited markets where the Cloud Computing saga has been played out till now. The number of players, both product and platform vendors as well as service providers will change radically and will most definitely feed into the hype cycle. So I believe we have a long way to go. - The lack of a big failure
While this may seem counter-intuitive, I believe that one of the major drivers for pushing any big idea or technology over the edge of the hype peak is a big failure. The denial of service by Twitter following the meltdown under peak load did exactly this for microblogging which features on the infographic well on its way down-under. The lack of permeability of Amazon's Kindle into markets beyond the US (http://www.podcastingnews.com/2009/06/16/the-failure-of-the-kindle-as-a-new-media-platform/) is another example of a technology failing to live up to the promises.
As I type this, I can't recollect any such big fiasco for the Cloud. In the absence of that, I don't believe there will be any discounting any of the future hype-drivers in the media.
Interestingly, one of other items on the way to the trough as mentioned in the cycle is the 4G network technology. Considering that India's cellular subscriber base is set to rise to 1.159 billion by the end of 2013, making it the world's largest mobile market, according to London-based Informa Telecoms and Media's latest forecast and majority of users here have still not been exposed to 3G telephony services, it's a bit cheeky to write-off 4G telephony already.
I believe, that once the next wave of Cloud adoption is materialized, the hype will rise to a crescendo and will last for a long long time.
