2017 Predictions for the connected car - What to look out for? - Part 1
Before I list out the trends, a quick note on the structure to ease readability. There are 3 phases from trends perspective and producer and consumer lens. Here are the phases
- Implement: Adoption of these trends will increase and they will be implemented in 2017 or the implementation is in progress that you will see them in cars in 2017. I estimate a 0-2 year period that these trends are in production
- Develop: Research on these topics will increase and you will see prototypes in vehicles at auto shows, and on roads. Another way of looking at them is that they are getting ready to be adopted. I estimate a 2-4 year period that these trends are in production
- Incubate: These are trends that are still in a concept phase and will eventually get into research and then adoption. Some might not mature to be in production, nevertheless these are important aspects that have to be continuously researched. I estimate a 4-5 year period before these trends are in production
The picture below captures the trends in each of these phases, the timeline shown above is how long it will take before you see it on cars on the road. Any new technology adoption will go through these phases in some form or other, I think what we are going to witness in the auto industry is going to be unprecedented, shortening of these cycles and acceleration of new technology in the vehicle.
While the above phases slot the trends, another viewpoint is to look at them from a producer and consumer perspective. A producer is any player in the value chain who is responsible for producing something that goes into the car - these could be auto OEMs, Tier 1 suppliers, ISVs, Tier 2s, Semiconductor companies, Service providers. The intersection of these two axes provides us insights of "what does it mean for the stakeholder" and possibly the "why" question as well
- Consumer: The impact of a particular trend on the customer who is at the wheels, how will it benefit, what is the perceived value and such?
- Producer: What does it mean for an auto OEM, Tier 1 supplier, the software vendor and producers in the entire value chain? What do they have to watch out for?
The picture below lays out the trends and analyzes the impact on consumer and value system players. Essentially, how will this trend impact the end customer and what must the ecosystem do to accelerate adoption and realization of the trends.
Together both the perspectives provide a view of the trends and how does it impact the end customer and producers of the technology (the ecosystem). My intent was to keep it brief and crisp when I started, but the project took its own shape and providing information while balancing the content length became the philosophy.
The second part of the blog here describes in detail the trends, and their impact on customers. Hope you enjoy reading it, I'd love to hear your feedback on the trends, my analysis and an amateur attempt at the predictions