The Other Reason Private Equity Deal Flow Will Increase
In previous entries, I have written about stagnation in the mergers and acquisition market, specifically in terms of Private Equity buyouts. There are a variety of reasons, not related specifically to Private Equity, for this relating to tighter credit, buyer/seller expectations, etc. However, there is one significant reason that not typically mentioned that will ensure existing “dry powder” is burned down sooner rather than later. The public equity markets.
Many acquisitions made at the end of the boom are suffering due to high debt exposure along with older holdings that have simply sunk with the overall market (a very positive exception being KKR’s Dollar General) which are drags on fund returns. This has been the same fate for any other holder of portfolios in the public equity market that was unable to liquidate as the broader market retreated into the Dow Jones 6000 range. However, recent gains of over 30% from those lows in public equity market is allowing those sophisticated players to recoup earlier losses by taking advantage of this run up. Private Equity funds which have not made any acquisitions or exits will have simply ridden the market down and back up with current investments while keeping uncalled funds in cash equivalents which don't get the benefit of an up market. While I am not saying Private Equity could not create better overall value for those Limited Partners, I am sure many LPs are having the discussion with their General Partners regarding fund strategy considering we have been in a dead period for almost a year now. Whether or not buyer and seller expectations are aligned yet, my guess is that buyout activity will increase one way or the other.


