At Infosys, our Insurance, Healthcare and Life Sciences teams strive for holistic, better and safer healthcare through the technology we create. In this blog, we will discuss healthcare IT, obstacles, successes, new ideas and much more, with the aim of improving healthcare technology, and quality of life as a result.

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February 21, 2011

The Road Less Taken: The Molecular Pathways

In my previous post, I had discussed the divergent R&D investment models - which related to the funding and collaboration aspects of R&D. In this one, I want to highlight a more fundamental divergence in the actual Research models and processes that the scientists are following in these companies.

In most big pharma research labs, the starting point for drug discovery is to come up with a therapeutic area first, viz. cardiovascular, Alzheimer's, diabetes etc. Typically these therapeutic areas are themselves shortlisted based on the market potential, relevance to as large a target population as possible, company's confidence of differentiating from other drugs in the market, and the likelihood of the drug becoming a blockbuster drug, or at the very least, something which generates enough revenues to justify the investment in the entire R&D process to bring it to market (estimates indicate that the cost of bringing a new drug to market is upwards of $1 billion!)

The next step then is to try to identify a molecular entity or genetic sequence that comes close to exhibiting the various properties desired in terms of disease treatment. To do this actually requires sifting through tens of thousands of likely candidates, sometimes even more, at the very early stages of the process called discovery. That could take months and years, and cost millions of dollars. And the search may still prove futile. Even after a candidate has been thus identified, it has to pass through the grueling research process of assays and tests to determine what are the various properties and likely reactions, before it is introduced into the clinical process for actual development into a drug that can be tested and taken to market after approval. Several ifs and buts, but this is the road mostly taken by pharma companies as they seek to become more innovative in research and justify the huge investments that are required.

The road less taken is the one being pioneered by individuals like Mark C. Fishman, the Novartis research chief. He took a different tack to drug discovery and development. Rather than focus on diseases that will yield the biggest sales pop, he had his team focus on pursuing the most effective drugs without worrying about whether they treat what the market considers of substantial potential or common conditions. He concentrated on molecular pathways - which control interactions between molecules in a cell - to gain more insights into multiple ailments at one go (something that is not apparent in the beginning). And he started running trials for drugs treating diseases that afflict relatively less number of people. Once these drugs were approved and successful, he was able to use the same drug or its variant in a different disease context, due to the common molecular pathway involved.

One successful drug that came out of this approach was Afinitor, medication for patients with benign brain tumors, which was initially started as a drug to treat children with tuberculosis sclerosis, a very small and limited segment. Novartis has been able to replicate this approach in other situations as well. As John Maraganore, Alnylam chief executive, and one of their partners, says, "You might learn something about pathways in one disease setting that would allow you to use the same or related medicine for other diseases. And that makes the whole drug discovery process more targeted and more efficient."

The road less taken seems to be leading to riches for Novartis. The company has nearly 50 drugs in late-stage clinical trials, a large number even for a big pharma, and it has shown more innovation with lesser costs than its peers by doubling the number of drugs making it through early-stage trials!

To summarize the two different approaches to Research:
1. Road mostly taken - focus on the diseases with the biggest potential or prevalence, and try to narrow down the drug candidates that can treat that specific condition; high investment, uncertain results.
2. Road less taken - focus on making effective drugs for diseases that are rare, but involve molecular pathways that may control multiple diseases; parlay into success in treating other diseases, leading to more focused and cost-effective research.

Which one is your company betting on?

 

February 16, 2011

IT Infrastructure for Accountable Care Organizations

For long-term effectiveness and sustenance of ACO beyond 3-5 year, unique IT infrastructure is required which will facilitate functioning of providers in an ACO as a unified entity working towards a common goal of reducing healthcare costs and improving healthcare outcomes. Providers in ACO necessarily need to have an Integrated Clinical System (ICS) similar to Electronic Health Record platforms solicited by RHIOs few years ago. Integrated Clinical System will be a comprehensive system with business modules to improve care coordination, clinical decision support and patient safety.

The spectrum of functional needs that must be supported by ACO IT infrastructure is quite wide. There are three broad functional categories under which IT needs of ACOs can be classified:
1. Clinical - functionality related to care coordination, integrated health records and advanced clinical decision support capability. These functions primarily target improving clinical outcomes and reducing cost of care.
2. Operational - supports business operations that can be integrated across participating providers. The objective of these IT functions is to reduce operational costs and ensure higher cost savings for ACOs.
3. Analytical - all the analytical needs of ACOs as discussed in my previous blog.

Under first category, ICS must support integrated E.H.R, risk stratification, preventive care and chronic disease management for the patient population. To reduce healthcare costs through seamless continuity of care, ICS must be integrated with nursing homes, long-term care centers, senior living facilities and hospices. ICS needs to support home-health and telemedicine through medical device integration and necessary workflows for the same. ACOs can leverage Health 2.0 platform for patient education and enablement for active participation in their healthcare. Health 2.0 can also be leveraged for collaboration across physicians, healthcare staff, patients and caregivers. All these functions have two pronged impact of improving quality of care and reducing cost of care which will result in ACOs registering greater cost savings which will in turn translate to higher shared benefits.

Another set of IT needs for ACOs could be those needed to support integrated operations across the participating providers. There are several operational areas where providers in ACOs can have integrated operations to reduce cost of care. For eg- integrated supply chain management has been proven to deliver significant cost savings. Integrating operations can help a lot in ensuring cost savings which is essential for sustenance of ACO model.

My previous blog emphasizes the significance of integrated clinical, operational and financial analytics in helping ACOs achieve their objectives. Integrated analytics will provide a clear line-of-sight into inefficient operational areas and their domino effect on quality of care as well as cost of care. ACOs also need to analyze historical data for various disease progression paths and the cost associated with them. Strong analytics is the most important IT infrastructure need of ACOs.

Biolog: An on-going dialog about Health Sciences!

Biolog #2 - Divergent R&D Investment Models

Big Pharma is taking divergent approaches to the R&D model, and it is going to dictate the investments, and ultimately the results.

"Merck & Co. CEO Ken Frazier took steps that are likely to anger Wall Street, saying the company won't (emphasis mine) make the cuts necessary to meet its long-term forecasts. Instead, it will focus on investing in drug development to drive growth after spending $8.1 billion on R&D last year." Merck's annual revenue is $46 billion.

"By contrast, Ian Read, Pfizer's CEO, pleased shareholders by vowing to slash the company's spending on drug R&D by about a third and to spend an additional $5 billion to buy back its stock. Pfizer spent $9.4 billion on R&D last year, but plans to cut it to as little as $6.5 billion in 2012." Pfizer's annual sales is $65 billion.
Investors punished Merck with a drop in its share price the day this was announced, while Pfizer's stock went up smartly.

The divergent R&D models can be summarized thus:

Model A - Invest in drug research & development for long-term growth. Based on the assumption that cutting costs is at the expense of top-line and the long-term growth of the company. Shows confidence in the company's ability in generate a promising pipeline.

Model B - Leave it to others to do the basic research, and see if they can acquire or license those that show a demonstration of strong potential. Based on the premise that much R&D spending isn't cost effective, the approval process faces long odds for success, and provides returns only if one or more drugs becomes a blockbuster.


Each strategy carries its own risks. By most estimates, bringing a new molecule to market costs more than $1 billion! The chances of hitting upon a blockbuster drug that can recoup that investment are low. On the other hand, it could become expensive to acquire new products at a later stage of their lifecycle. 

The new few years will show us which model carries the day!

February 7, 2011

Biolog #1 - The Innovation Deficit in the Drug Industry

Now that 2011 is well under way, I think it is time I finally got my own health sciences blog rolling. An ongoing dialog about the fast-changing health care and life sciences world which affects us all as human beings, biologically, socially and financially - a Biolog!

Two new developments this week provide the backdrop for the main point I want to make in this post: The industry is suffering from a major Innovation Deficit, right when the market is opening up in terms of demand and alternatives. The Innovation deficit in the BioPharma space is not going to be solved through heightened M&A activity. It might provide some breathing room for the companies to figure out ways of solving it, but by itself is not the answer.

Development No. 1:
'Pfizer Cuts R&D, Shifts Billions to Buybacks' - WSJ article dated Feb 2, 2011
To quote, "Pfizer Inc. said it will significantly reduce research spending and shift billions of dollars to buying back stock, as the big drug maker deals with an expected revenue decline in coming years from generic competition." The more interesting observation follows next: "The moves, ...., signal that its acquisitions of Wyeth and King Pharmaceuticals for more than $70 billion weren't enough to overcome recent setbacks in its drug pipeline and sales-eroding generic competition for its blockbuster cholesterol-lowering pill Lipitor. In an acknowledgment that its research-and-development efforts haven't been very productive (emphasis mine), Pfizer said..."

Their chief executive, Ian Read, is quoted as saying, "We have to fix this innovative core."

The article concludes that, "Although Pfizer believes the acquisition has been successful, it has had to revise the 2012 financial targets it set in connection with the Wyeth deal."

Read between the lines: Acquisitions are not going to solve our problems, we have to get back to the drawing board.

1+1 is not going to be 11, in fact it may not even be 2!

Development No. 2:
'Sanofi Nears Genzyme Deal' - WSJ article dated Feb 1, 2011
"Sanofi-Aventis SA and Genzyme Corp. have agreed in principle on the broad terms of a deal, people familiar with the matter said, setting the stage for what would be Big Pharma's latest step to shore up an aging pipeline by acquiring a smaller biotechnology company." Sounds fine until, "Sanofi Chief Executive Christopher Viehbacher has repeatedly criticized large deals as unproductive and called integrating them a distraction, (emphasis mine) but the company will start losing revenue from its blockbuster Plavix drug when the blood thinner loses patent protection is November....To offset the losses from such generic competition, big pharmaceutical companies have spent more than $110 billion snapping up more than a dozen biotech companies since 2006."

Read between the lines: We didn't want to do it, but we now have no choice. We cann't depend on our own R&D to get us out of the revenue hole, so have to look outside, however risky.
So, while one company is publicly acknowledging that acquisitions are not working the way they thought they would, another one is getting ready to take the plunge, in spite of its own CEO's reservations! Should be interesting to watch how it turns out, don't you think?

So what do these developments presage for the BioPharmaceuticals industry and stakeholders:

  1. The Big Pharma is facing an Innovation Deficit and still hasn't figured out how to bridge that internally, and is looking at M&A for answers;
  2. The era of blockbuster drugs is over; The industry will not see another multi-billion drug coming out their labs in a hurry - their pipelines are mostly dry; The innovation is happening with lower case i, at smaller biotechs around the world, who lack the wherewithal to take these through the development and marketing cycle;
  3. Even if the CEOs are not convinced it is the right path, they cann't ignore their board and their investors who want to see some visible action to shore up the top line and are backing the M&A activity;
  4. The drug industry size is going to shrink due to the revenue cliff, but a few players will grow in size due to M&A;
  5. The cost structure of the business is going to fundamentally change, as the companies need to maintain their bottom lines, while the top lines shrink (according to an estimate, over $150 billion of annual drug sales will disappear down the revenue cliff in the coming 2-3 years!)

So, what are the companies doing to drive the innovation agenda and at the same time restructure their cost models? And what do these changes mean to the patients and consumers? I will try to address that in my upcoming posts.

In the meantime, thanks for reading and interested in your comments to keep the Biolog moving.

 

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