The Infosys global supply chain management blog enables leaner supply chains through process and IT related interventions. Discuss the latest trends and solutions across the supply chain management landscape.

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November 11, 2011

Demand Planning in CPG industry - Practising the Best Practices

No matter which industry you are in, I am sure you would have constantly encountered the term - "Best Practices". In order to maximize the shareholder value, organizations are constantly striving to adopt these best practices in almost every domain or process relevant for them. Demand planning is the most critical process in the CPG industry, since it drives all downstream processes (raw material/finished goods inventory planning, procurement planning, capacity planning, manpower planning, transportation planning, etc.) for running the organization in the most effective and efficient manner.

Continue reading "Demand Planning in CPG industry - Practising the Best Practices " »

September 22, 2011

The Role of Information Sharing in Global Supply Chain Operations

Information sharing can radically improve the way global companies and their partners do business, especially in the wake of increasingly globalization and outsourcing, which has and will continue to have a profound effect on supply chain operations. By exchanging information such as inventory levels, forecasting data, and sales trends, companies can reduce cycle times, fulfill orders more quickly, cut out millions of dollars in excess inventory, and improve forecast accuracy and customer service.

 

Continue reading "The Role of Information Sharing in Global Supply Chain Operations" »

August 27, 2011

Product Allocation Planning - Managing supply constraints

In my last couple of posts (here and here), I wrote about features of a good FG product allocation planning tool, and the strategies surrounding setting up the right process for it.

The focus was on setting parameters like product groups, customer groups, planning horizon and frequency.

The next important question is how to effectively distribute supply amongst multiple demand channels during periods of constrained supply.

Continue reading "Product Allocation Planning - Managing supply constraints" »

July 31, 2011

Can you re-imagine IT for SCM?

The theme of this year's Gartner CIO Leadership forum that was held in March 2011 has been a great influence to write this blog. "Creative Destruction" is what they called it and you can find more details on the subject here. The theme though it reflects a negative undertone is intended to convey the requirement that CIOs need to create the future from the resources they have now. Mark P McDonald from Gartner did explain the relevance of this theme in his blog and I do agree with the opinion that the future of IT will require creative destruction to reconfigure and reimaging resources in new roles creating new sources of value.
 
Coming to the topic, it was tweaked  to make it relevant to this forum and bring out their experiences & thoughts in  re-imagining IT for Supply chain management. Recently one of our teams finished a demand sensing implementation project for a CPG global leader in food and beverages. As most of you must be aware, Demand sensing is application of algorithms to downstream data and recognize patterns in what is being sold, who is buying and which demand shaping programs are creating an impact. Demand sensing software's essentially sit on the top of demand management software's and ERP's to do this. Interestingly, over the period, you can notice that there is a clear trend in IT maturing from  transactional based systems to something more analytical & predictive. In addition, there could be other potential avenues where IT can add value as well.

Continue reading "Can you re-imagine IT for SCM?" »

July 28, 2011

True Truckload optimization - Opportunity for leading supply chain products

Just imagine that you want to relocate with your family to another country for 2 years for company's work. It is but obvious that you would want to carry the maximum luggage with you without paying hefty fine for the excessive baggage at the airport. As a part of logical thought process, you would first consider the various constraints imposed by the airlines (weight, volume, number of luggage/ hand baggage, etc.) and then you would start to pack the stuff. Won't you agree with me that the most important step is  placing different items inside the bags - like which items should be at the bottom (ideally sturdy ones),which items should be alongside of the bag, which items should be in the hand baggage (fragile ones), et al. Applying similar other parameters after 1st round of packing you would weigh the bags, re-shuffle the items 4-5 times in various bags and would spend almost 3 hours in this process till the objective of maximum luggage within the specified weight constraints is met. How nice it would be, if any software program can provide an end-to-end solution to you - i.e. right from considering the constraint to the layout of the products to be placed in the bags?

Continue reading "True Truckload optimization - Opportunity for leading supply chain products" »

July 5, 2011

Is Inventory the "necessary evil"?

In my earlier blog, I had highlighted the following challenges most of the Supply chain professionals face across multiple dimensions from a Customer Service perspective:
1. The drive towards Globalization has resulted in the focus to not only look at the developing markets for cheap supply, but also to tap these developing markets to drive future growth. These newer markets do add to the overall growth of the organization, but also pose newer challenges in meeting the customer demand satisfactorily
2. Increasingly demanding customers with information at finger tips and lower brand loyalty
3. Increased channels to service the customers with varying degrees of Customer Service expectations
4. Intense competitive activity driving lower prices and reduced scope for differentiation
5. Increased pace of product innovation - rapid new product introductions combined with rapidly reducing product life cycles.

Continue reading "Is Inventory the "necessary evil"?" »

June 28, 2011

Supply Chain Planning Arena - Which product is better amongst the best

Every single day we are going through the product evaluation phase in our buying process for our personal/household needs. Consumer buying process normally involves - Problem recognition, information search, evaluation of different options, purchase decision, and finally post purchase behavior. Organizations are no exceptions to this process and are going through the same phases when it comes to the buying any products/solutions for either gaining the competitive advantage or for optimizing the current processes.

Continue reading "Supply Chain Planning Arena - Which product is better amongst the best" »

June 25, 2011

Capital Intensive Hi-Tech Supply Chains: Capacity Allocations Issues and Potential Solutions

The Supply Chain in Hi-tech and Semiconductor industry vertical is characterized by globally fragmented value chain partners with product design happening in Silicon valley, foundries and fabrication units spread throughout south east Asia region, software development happening in Bangalore and assembly and testing being conducted in Malaysia.

Continue reading "Capital Intensive Hi-Tech Supply Chains: Capacity Allocations Issues and Potential Solutions" »

June 3, 2011

What Products Should Be Campaign Manufactured?

Every marketer dreams of a manufacturing facility that is without any constraint. If marketing people had their way, they will expect all the products available "On Demand" whenever customer places order. However real life manufacturing does not work on such utopian considerations. Every manufacturing facility in the world, howsoever sophisticated it may be, has some constraints. Hence not all products can be made manufactured "On Demand". By extension few products have to be manufactured in Campaigns. By Campaign, I mean, manufacturing them at set frequency (Example - Once every quarter at scheduled date). Forecasted demand between campaigns is aggregated and campaign quantity decided accordingly. Campaign manufacturing is common practice across all types of manufacturing - Discrete, Repetitive and even Process manufacturing. This is because every technical asset has some sort of limitation and cannot manufacture everything "On Demand".

Continue reading "What Products Should Be Campaign Manufactured?" »

Market insights into Planning & Forecasting space

I  was recently invited to share my insights for a special report on Demand Forecasting & Planning, APS and Integrated  Business Planning/S&OP for the May edition of Manufacturing & Logistics IT magazine,a leading Pan-European SCM specialist IT solutions publication. My insights are shared based on the key market trends witnessed and the associated notable technological developments for manufacturing and logistics industry.

It also gave me an opportunity to share my experiential views on key areas such as innovations in planning-related software solutions, relevance of SaaS/Cloud and on-premise systems and noteworthy adoptions of Planning & Forecasting solutions among the end-customer base along with other leading thought leaders across the SCM vendor, Systems Integrator and Management Consulting community in Europe.

 The digital version of the article can be accessed here.( Page 8 -15).

I would like to hear your thoughts and experiences here.

May 31, 2011

Is there a need for Next Generation Supply Chain planning products?

It is no major news that organizations are consciously gearing up to capture a customer demand regardless of the source/channel of demand and then attempting to fulfill the same. Internet dot com sites, cell phones/ ipads or any other such mobile devices give the buyers the necessary platforms to capture and convey data from multiple points and attempting to move to a truly smart consumer-centric model.


While there is a lot of activity and discussions on the trends in the Next Generation Commerce solutions and how a multi-channel e-commerce (MCC) solution enables retail organizations to offer consistent services across virtually any customer touch point, the question that comes to mind is "Are Supply Chain Planning systems (both demand and fulfillment) in a state where they can predict and plan the increasingly volatile demand?"

Continue reading "Is there a need for Next Generation Supply Chain planning products?" »

May 30, 2011

HazMat in SCM Needs to Worry About New Tech Impositions!

During the last couple of weeks, I have been associated with the brainstorming around how best to manage Hazardous Waste or Material (HazMat) for a major US retailer. The client management team is focused on having a solution that covers HazMat of all kinds across the enterprise since that is the core KPI of the department. Most of our initial discussions have been around two threads:
1. Understanding our Point of View on Reverse Logistics (RL) since HazMat typically need to flow in the opposite direction of the regular product supply chain flow
2. Figuring out whether SAP EHS solution is the best bet versus IBM Sterling Commerce RL capability and IBM Maximo's work management capability.
Personally, I wasn't too keen on going for either of these approaches.

Continue reading "HazMat in SCM Needs to Worry About New Tech Impositions!" »

March 21, 2011

A Best Practice Approach to Improve the Order-to-Ship Process Using GATP Functionality in SAP APO

SAP insider event is one of the most awaited and sought-after annual event in the SAP consulting community. The event specifically focuses on broad areas of Supply Chain, Manufacturing, Life-cycle management and Procurement. Taking this opportunity, as part of the Infosys SAP and SCM family,am planning to present some interesting and thought-provoking experiences that we went through as we implemented  Available-to-Promise(ATP) engine at a leading global FMCG major.


 

Continue reading "A Best Practice Approach to Improve the Order-to-Ship Process Using GATP Functionality in SAP APO" »

March 4, 2011

Trending in 2011 - Supply Chain as a Visible Differentiator

Just before boarding the flight to US for IBM Pulse, Bob Ferrari of Supply Chain Matters had a media interview with me. While the primary objective was to discuss about the EAM sector and what we plan to showcase at Pulse, conversation invariably moved over to a broader supply chain fabric.

Last year, for those who remember, as part of my SCM predictions for 2010, I had stressed on the need for convergence and integration across supply chain. For me, this was achieved through

  • Integrating disparate functions (forecasting with procurement, transportation with warehousing and work management with inventory)
  • Near real-time visibility across the supply chain (ideally - if not, at least cutting across business functions), via an alert and event management framework

This year, with SCM being in greater focus as a more visible partner in organizational strategy, my view was on how supply chain can be the driver for

  • growth (revenue impact)
  • cost (profit impact) and
  • differentiation (competitve strategy impact)

These are sometimes achieved through specific business functions, for eg: indirect procurement program focus on cost management while anything on the sell-side whether its enhanced B2B commerce features or store inventory visibility would drive revenues. How would you use supply chain to differentiate your organization vis-a-vis the competition - at the customer-side, supplier-side and partner-side?

More on my interview with Bob here: http://www.theferrarigroup.com/supply-chain-matters/2011/03/02/smarter-asset-management-interview-with-gopi-krishnan-of-infosys-technologies-part-two/

February 23, 2011

Forecaster ABCs - The 'Vital Few' for Forecasting

Lets travel back in time in the 19th century, to take a quick look at the very interesting observation made by the Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto - 20% of the population possessed 80% of the country's wealth and the same was observed for other countries and over different periods of time. This has been known widely as the 'Pareto's Principle' or the 80/20 rule or the 'Law of Vital Few'. This principle has been adopted in the ABC Classification, which also happens to be the topic of my blog, with the 'A' group items [the 'vital few' representing 20%] contributing to 80% of the phenomenon, the 'B' group [representing 30%] contributing to 10% of the phenomenon and the 'C' group [the 'trivial many' representing 50%] contributing to only 10% of the phenomenon.

This law asserts that the outputs are not always equal as the inputs; that a small set of inputs, contribute or influence significantly the outputs. The principle plays an important role in depicting the imbalance, which may be 70/30, 80/20, 95/5 or 80/10, 90/30 or any set of numbers in between. The key to note is that this relationship is between two different sets of data [input & output or cause & effect] and hence need not add up to 100.

Continue reading "Forecaster ABCs - The 'Vital Few' for Forecasting" »

February 18, 2011

Product Allocation Planning - Managing allocation parameters

Continuing from my previous post, what questions come to mind when one thinks of a finished good product allocation-planning tool?

Well, one of the first question is how does the tool ensure right amount of supply is being allocated to the various demand channels, and how does it share supply when faced with a supply constraint?

Continue reading "Product Allocation Planning - Managing allocation parameters" »

February 14, 2011

Getting Serious about Supply chain collaboration

Based on the various client interactions & inquires so far, I  can say that organizations are getting very serious about collaborative  relationships with their suppliers and are investing a great deal of their time & resources in strengthening the relevant processes. In this blog, I share my thoughts on the market direction & activity in this space.  Supply chain collaboration is nothing new in the world of competitive supply chains, but collaborative relationships have so far been limited to mature and large suppliers. They were limited to suppliers  who can afford, and are mature in terms of IT infrastructure, to be connected with EDI. Organizations have realized that even smaller suppliers are important to be ahead in this competitive landscape, as disruptions from their end could potentially disrupt the entire supply chain.

Continue reading "Getting Serious about Supply chain collaboration" »

February 6, 2011

How to Monitor Forecast Accuracy? Forward or Backward

Generally Statistical Forecast generation process works in following way. History and Forecast horizons are always fixed. (Example - 72 months history period will be used to generate forecast for next 60 months). Every month oldest history data point is dropped and newest history data point is included in history zone. This process is called history rollover (Continuing with above example, if you are in Feb 2011 then January 2005 history data point will be dropped and January 2011 history data will be included in history zone to keep 72 month history period constant). Forecast engine runs after history rollover to generate forecast based on preset models for each SKU. Generally statistical tuning to find out best suitable forecast model for a particular SKU is performed only once during initial implementation. After that some sort of monitoring process and alerts are set up to find out forecasting cases where time series pattern has changed. Topic for this blog is to discuss logic for this monitoring process and consequently alerts.

Continue reading "How to Monitor Forecast Accuracy? Forward or Backward" »

January 31, 2011

Smarter Commerce means more SCM than before!

Of late, via market hearsay, some level of intelligence gathering and straightforward google search, I've been trying to read up and wisen up on IBM's Smarter Commerce initiative. On first look, this may sound like another one of those attempts to prefix the word "smarter" with just about everything, but coming from an organization which has taken up the task for making the planet itself smarter, I was intrigued as to how the acquired companies (specifically Sterling Commerce) would stack up in this list.

 

Here's some webview on this:

 

Continue reading "Smarter Commerce means more SCM than before!" »

January 17, 2011

VSCOR: Measuring the Competetive Quotient of your network

Supply Chain managers constantly struggle to quantify investments and articulate the value for any reengineering exercise. A continuously learning organization, something exemplified by the likes of Toyota have taken articulation, assessment, measurement and insight generation to the next level by making it a part of their DNA. A widely accepted model for analysis of business processes is SCOR which lays out a methodology for organizations to view their supply chain in a different paradigm. The Supply Chain Practice at Infosys also has aligned its broad offerings based on the SCOR model starting with diagnostics and consulting to implementations. But talking about first measuring and then articulating realistically is something which has become an imperative in today's time when investments continue to be looked at under the lens.

Continue reading "VSCOR: Measuring the Competetive Quotient of your network" »

December 31, 2010

Partnering with Honda at Supply Chain World Conference in Singapore: a lot to learn about high-growth markets

This blog of mine is quite different from all my blogs. Instead of trying to analyze what trends I see or what directions I construe in supply chain management, here I will share with you some of my experience during a recent presentation at the Supply Chain World Conference in Singapore. We (Infosys and Honda) were invited for presenting at this conference on some of the innovations carried out in supply chain inventory optimization and distribution lead-time management

Continue reading "Partnering with Honda at Supply Chain World Conference in Singapore: a lot to learn about high-growth markets" »

December 25, 2010

When and How to Use "Best Fit Model" in Your Statistical Forecasting Suite?

Most of the Demand Planning applications like SAP APO, i2, Manugistics, Demantra etc offer statistical forecasting as one of their major differentiating functionality. Statistical forecasting generates the forecast for future periods based on history data provided. Lots of algorithms are on offer in these suites. Sometimes as many as 30 to 40 different algorithms / methods / Forecasting Strategies (All are different terms used for same thing) are on offer.

Continue reading "When and How to Use "Best Fit Model" in Your Statistical Forecasting Suite?" »

December 21, 2010

Product Allocation Planning - Sharing the supply pie and managing order commits

In my recent engagement at a consumer electronics client, I worked with the ops planning teams to understand their finished good allocation planning process, build a tool to support the processes and enable opportunities to improve upon

The function of product allocation planning is that of a bridge between the planning and order fulfillment side processes. In the context of multiple sales channels, this function primarily ensures the right amount of supply is being allocated to the right channel partners at the right time

Continue reading "Product Allocation Planning - Sharing the supply pie and managing order commits" »

December 5, 2010

Supplementing Forecast Accuracy Measures - Part 1

The basic premise for any Forecast Model is that a pattern or relationship exists with regards to the variable being forecasted and that this pattern or relationship does not change over time. Thus the model that 'BEST' fits the available historical data will also be the best model to predict beyond these data points in the future. I will extend this further in the context of Forecast Models available in the advanced planning systems - The model that 'BEST' fits the 'historical data in the initialization horizon' will be the best model to predict beyond these data points in the future.
However in real life situations, as mentioned in my earlier blog, these assumptions do not hold true as these patterns or relationships are mixed with random noise or could change over time. The change in the pattern could be triggered either due to shifts in attitudes or behaviors of Consumers or caused by actions taken by Competitors or planners or due to a major technological breakthrough. The impact of these changes on the demand pattern depends on the elasticity of the demand being forecasted. With the Product Lifecycles getting shorter and the pace of new products introduced increased, the time a part would continue in a lifecycle is way less than the typical Historical or Forecast Horizons. In the High-Tech industry, we could encounter 3-4 Lifecycle stages, with completely consumption patterns in a planning horizon.

We do implement various Forecast Accuracy measures to generate alerts and exceptions when the thresholds are exceeded. However, it is noteworthy to consider the fact that a Forecast Model that is best for a particular demand pattern, need not be the best for a different demand pattern and there may be a better Forecast Model for the changed demand pattern that will not be chosen until the Forecast Accuracy of the current model do not exceed the threshold. This approach, although very effective when the patterns are stable, results in a reactive approach to managing changes in demand patterns, with the risk that some subtle demand patterns may just go unnoticed.

Continue reading "Supplementing Forecast Accuracy Measures - Part 1" »

November 19, 2010

S&OP must be a closed loop process - volume to mix; executive to execution

Earlier this week, I was invited to post my thoughts on S&OP on Kinaxis' S&OP Experts Blog Series. This series features a weekly Q&A with an industry thought leader on sales and operations planning trends and strategies.  It was a pleasure to join the company of supply chain thought leaders like Tom Wallace, Coco Crum, Lora Cecere, Andrew Reese, Bob Ferrari, Nari Viswanathan, Simon Ellis and share insights on a topic which is gaining rapid momentum in the supply chain arena today.  My sincere appreciation for Kinaxis for initiating this series which in my opinion has resulted into an amazing collection of thought leadership on S&OP every supply chain practitioner would benefit from.
Would like to invite you to check out the details on Kinaxis' site for more details and would love to have your comments and perspectives on the same.

November 8, 2010

Keeping up with Order Fill rate in a Reactive Supply Chain environment

In continuation with an earlier blog, 9 months further on in the same project and with key business process learning in that context, I would like to add a further perspective to the Fill rate topic. Supply Chains, especially in the retail segment, face some unique challenges that are not easy to encounter without supporting technology. The product-life-cycle in the retail segment takes lesser time to take a new product offering into a state of "commoditization". The differentiators among competitors from a product characteristic view blur out within no time. As a result, the key differentiating factor is to manage to stock the product as efficiently and effectively as possible while controlling the cost to replenish pipeline inventory. The longer the supply chain can sustain such a model, the better the chances are of its survival in the long run.

Continue reading "Keeping up with Order Fill rate in a Reactive Supply Chain environment" »

November 5, 2010

Does your Forecaster end up being a Placebo?

By asking this question, I do not intend to question the efforts and intentions of the personnel from the Forecasting and Demand Planning organizations. However, I intend to question the role of the Forecaster and the philosophy adopted by the Forecasting and Demand Planning Team in your organization. I would want to state my stance at the onset that I do firmly believe in the benefits of a formal forecasting process and the key role the forecasting organization has played in the recent past to guide the subsequent planning processes in providing early guidance. But I do not want this to be considered at face value for all situations, but would rather want to question and constantly challenge the role of Forecaster for the different scenarios being planned... Again, the idea is to not doubt or question the intentions of the Forecasters, but with the premise that even noble intentions, if not managed well could lead to bad results, objectively evaluate the contribution made by the Forecaster and the Demand Planner.

Continue reading "Does your Forecaster end up being a Placebo?" »

November 1, 2010

The changing face of supply chain organization

Recently I interacted with Senior supply chain managers at some of our customers around their changing roles due to IT. Discussions from these interactions leads me believe that companies are convinced of the strategic importance of supply chain planning information technology and SCM organizations are being enhanced to significantly leverage these applcations.

Supply chain organizations and leaders within companies have evolved fairly recently as businesses understood and appreciated the importance of supply chain management. Supply chain management organizations have undergone the transformation from being merely a support organization to being at the forefront of business strategy. SCM is constantly evolving, with latest innnovations occuring due to IT strategy being completely intertwined with business & supply chain strategy. Within the SCM IT space, Planning applications have gone through the hype cycle phases and are now entering the plateau of productivty.

Traditionally, planning implementations have not been very successful, either because the designs were too complicated for users or plans were too difficult to understand but mostly due to lack of user enablement to leverage the planning applications. Based on my interactions, it looks like Businesses have recogninzed the value that planning applications can add as well as  the issues & challenges in using the applications. Hence Supply chain organizations are keen to rampup their key users in the supply chain information technology areas and take the initative rather than depend upon IT organizations to help them.companies are adding new roles within the SCM groups to leverage existing investments in IT and provide IT enabled reengineering, if existing users cannot be sufficiently reskilled, The customer I mentioned earlier, has added new roles in SCM with IT enabled process improvement as the key performance areas.

Businesses are now getting into a largely uncharted territory with these initatives and it will be interesting to see how this will further evolve.

October 30, 2010

Trendwatching in SCP: Analytics & Planning-as-a-Service

Sometime back, we were finalizing the second coming of the JDA-Infosys alliance (we had previous versions of alliances with i2 & Manugistics a few years back), we had a call with Noha Tohamy of Gartner who specializes in the Supply Chain Planning (SCP) domain. Analysts talk to a lot of people, soak up a lot of ideas and formulate their opinions by distilling what they consider is relevant, hence I was looking forward to this call as a sounding board to get her views on the market, the company and the upcoming trends. Like in any conversations, it was the unexpected that made it more memorable.

 

Continue reading "Trendwatching in SCP: Analytics & Planning-as-a-Service" »

October 29, 2010

How far "Pull" concept should drive your Supply Chain Activities?

In this blog I will try to answer one of the most pertinent question every supply chain operating manager face in his or her day to day working. To set the context consider a simplistic model of a manufacturing supply chain.

Continue reading "How far "Pull" concept should drive your Supply Chain Activities?" »

October 25, 2010

Impact of Social Media on Supply Chain

We recently concluded our All Hands Meet where I got an opportunity to meet my fellow colleagues from a practice called Next Gen Commerce. As the name suggests, it is associated with clients that are aggressively forward looking and ready to take bold steps in leveraging new technologies and venture into new domains to gain consumer mind share. One of the great things that I heard was about how companies especially in developed economies are trying to capitalize or monetize information that's available on net - basically using what we all call "social media" to gain competitive advantage.
While I was thinking all this and trying to imbibe all great things that I heard, I was wondering if there could be an impact of social media on supply chains. This blog of mine is therefore of an exploratory nature (since I have little awareness on this subject) where I would like to share my thoughts and seek your inputs and comments.
I am sure Social media is something that all of us know in bits and pieces, and it touches our lives today in some form or the other. The typical examples of social media are facebook, twitter and blog sites such as ours. Some of these are subject-specific and lot of these are fairly generic and provide a platform for people to share their experiences, ideas and opinions in this borderless world. Although, it is just a platform for people to exchange information, but I am sure, it has a powerful influence to businesses and of course, to supply chains.

Continue reading "Impact of Social Media on Supply Chain" »

October 5, 2010

Is "Higher Forecast Accuracy" the silver bullet?

To answer this, lets take a step back and try to answer a more fundamental question - Do we need forecasts? Our immediate response to this will be YES. And for most of us, the response will be based on the following key challenges most of the Supply chain professionals face across multiple dimensions:
1. The drive towards Globalization has resulted in the focus to not only look at the developing markets for cheap supply, but also to tap these developing markets to drive future growth
2. Increasing lead times and lead time variability with most of the manufacturing bases of suppliers outsourced or offshore
3. Increasingly demanding customers with information at finger tips [thanks to internet] and lower brand loyalty
4. Intense competitive activity driving lower prices and reduced scope for differentiation
5. Increased pace of product innovation - rapid new product introductions combined with rapidly reducing product life cycles
Both the Product Supply Chain and Information chains are getting longer, making the task of the Supply chain professional challenging… and the need for Forecasting and Demand Planning more and more necessary, to ensure a steady flow of products to the right place at the right time in the right form.

Continue reading "Is "Higher Forecast Accuracy" the silver bullet?" »

September 29, 2010

Working towards making your Network Work!

One of the well known challenges supply chains face is to tackle the operational variabilities that exist internal and external to the organization. In our highly networked world which is seeing an insatiable appetite to exploit collaboration, external variability has caught the attention of managers and practitioners. Lets us discuss few perspectives here around Transportation solutions and processes enabling this.

Continue reading "Working towards making your Network Work!" »

September 13, 2010

Conservative or Progressive Approach in Fulfillment Strategy

Fulfillment planning is one of the crucial processes in a supply chain linking Order Management with Planning. It is right at the forefront of execution and at the same time is completely dependent on strength and predictability of Supply Planning. There are different lead times in the Supply Chain that determine the Planning Time Fence (PTF) in a Production context and Planned Delivery Time (PDT) in case of Procurement context. These times typically define the range from current day that the Supply Planning is supple enough to react. A specific PDT or PTF in Supply Planning controls locking up supply within this time range and not react to any varying demand. At the same time there may be planned orders within the time range that could still potentially be converted to firm orders based on available capacity.

Continue reading "Conservative or Progressive Approach in Fulfillment Strategy" »

September 9, 2010

How to set your Safety Stock Policies?

Every distribution warehouse in supply chain network holds inventory and has some safety stock maintained. How much safety stock or inventory should be kept at each warehouse is the topic I am going to address in this blog. In fact my focus will be on one common mistake that is made in the process of setting inventory and safety stock norms.

Continue reading "How to set your Safety Stock Policies?" »

September 1, 2010

The most important Phase in Supply Chain Planning Implementations

I believe that the most important phase in supply chain planning implementations is actually post implementation support. Many customers after having spent a lot of money on implementing planning systems are not able to leverage the systems to the fullest extent and the usage of the planning system dwindles down. This can be avoided with much needed management focus on post implementation support.

Continue reading "The most important Phase in Supply Chain Planning Implementations" »

August 25, 2010

Do companies run unique supply chains for each market segment?

Couple of days back, I was in touch with one of my colleagues about a supply chain pursuit for one of the leading supply chain companies in the world. And that particular experience led me to this blog of mine which is about "unique supply chains" within the four walls of the company tailored for each market segment it caters to.
I am sharing few thoughts here - more so in form of questions that I have. I will really urge each one of you to share your thoughts and experiences on this subject.
Just imagine a global organization servicing few market segments such as say for example - 'enterprise' and 'customer' to name a few. Both the market segments have different operating models - so for example: 'enterprise' is more of ATO/CTO scenario while 'customer' is more of MTS environment. Both the models work differently from each other and therefore, the questions that I have are:
• Are the operations managed centrally or as unique supply chains?
• Do they share common tools / platforms?
• Is the SCM organization centralized or decentralized?
• Do they leverage the same supply chain assets and global partnerships?
  
In my opinion, based on my experience in India and outside with few of our clients, I feel:
• There is no specific concept of having unique supply chains tailored for market segments such as enterprise and consumer. The two market segments can be treated like two different business units focused on different set of customers but still works on the same supply chain structure.
• The planning is done for all products and for all market segments it caters to - 'globally" or "at one point in time" - they follow the same cycles.
• The assets such as factories, machines, 3PLs are shared. The tools (IT systems) are definitely the same.
• Usually a centralized supply chain structure. But there could be supply chain folks managing each channel / market segment sitting next to each other and leveraging their relationships and mutual understanding to fulfill orders by deciding postponement and allocation of orders.
• What could differ is the organization of sales teams and therefore, how the demand is forecasted and finalized and used for production planning. The performance metrics are definitely different.

What is your point of view? What have you seen in leading companies across the globe? Any industry: be it Hi-tech, CPG or any discrete manufacturing company. The scenario that I have mentioned looks very common and therefore, I am sure you would have experienced it somewhere in the past.
I really want to know how it works. How are companies fulfilling these unique set of needs of different market segments through their supply chain structure?
Please do share your comments and feedback...

August 13, 2010

How to Control Proliferation of SKUs?

One of the current biggest challenge faced in supply chain management is explosion of number of SKUs. It is very common scene that total number of SKUs are 50 to 100 times the number of "Real" product offerings. By "Real" product, I mean, a product which customer buy to satisfy some of their needs. SKU is something which is created out of "Real" product so that it can be sold to a customer in a specific market place. There are many reasons for which multiple SKUs are created from same "real" Product. Some of them are listed below.

Continue reading "How to Control Proliferation of SKUs?" »

July 30, 2010

How to Measure Forecast Accuracy?

Everyone who is associated with Demand Planning and Forecasting function invariably talks about a phrase called "Forecast Accuracy". It is a measure used for judging the efficiency of the Forecasting Process. At the back of the mind everyone knows that Forecast Accuracy is the comparison of Forecast Vs Actual.

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July 8, 2010

Would SCM be a differentiator in your Apps Portfolio?

Dennis Gaughan of Gartner in his blog dated 29-Jun-2010 wonders whether its time for corporations to rethink their enterprise applications portfolio strategy (http://blogs.gartner.com/dennis-gaughan/2010/06/29/is-it-time-to-rethink-your-enterprise-application-portfolio-strategy/). Well, I think organizations are thinking about it all the time, sometimes when they do their annual planning and are reminded of the morass in their application landscape and sometimes thanks to M&A (esp for financial institutions) forcing them to look at what to sunset and what to fold in.

Continue reading "Would SCM be a differentiator in your Apps Portfolio?" »

May 30, 2010

Challenges of Dealing with Quality Inspection Stocks in Supply Chain

Quality Inspection Stock is defined as a stock that is quarantined for inspection and is generally not available for unrestricted usage for customer orders. The process of Quality Inspection could be a long drawn process involving multiple kinds of product checks to as short as couple of hours involving some kind of sampling technique. Most of the ERP systems available in the market have their own Quality Management module along with other modules such as Plant Maintenance or Production Planning. By implementing a Quality Management module, it is possible for supply planning systems to take into account realistic release dates of quality inspection stock into unrestricted stock. With such release dates being accounted for, the Supply planning system can accordingly propose incremental supplies in the network based on demand supply calculations as a function of time.

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May 28, 2010

Beyond Retail - whither goes Multi-Channel Commerce?

Every year, eager, enterprising and wide-eyed management graduates join us at our Hyderabad campus, straight from B-school to the Enterprise Solutions Academy (ESA) for a 10-week boot-camp, at the end of which they get deployed in various cities across multiple enterprise packages to kick-off a career in enterprise solutions as Associate Consultants. This May, I was addressing and answering the queries of a set of folks slated to join the SCM practice. One question that caught my eye came was from someone who asked how come Distributed Order Management (from Sterling Commerce, naturally) was so hugely popular among retailers, but didn't cut it in other industry verticals.

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April 5, 2010

Demand Planning in Oil Field Services sector

Well, this blog of mine is focused on demand planning issues and solutions in the oil field services (OFS) industry segment. For those of you, who are new to this sector (just like me), Oil field services companies are a critical component in Oil & Gas value chain. These companies provide products and services to the oil and gas producing companies (also known as operators) in the upstream processes such as drilling, formation evaluation, completion and production of wells etc.

As you can understand, they depend heavily on the operators for their business and therefore, their growth is driven by how fast the Oil & Gas industry is growing. All of us know the typical external pressures that the operators face – oil prices, recession, credit crisis etc, that directly impact their business performance, and hence their capability to continue production. Oil field services companies, although they are big in size, but still largely depend on operator’s spending ability to produce oil and gas.

I am currently working on an assignment that is about demand planning issues that the OFS players face and how do they mitigate some of these challenges - such as how can they improve forecasting processes, manage inventory, reduce mismatch in inventory across sites etc. How mature are these players in demand planning space? I want to know at what level is the demand forecasting done. How is the forecast arrived at? How is the product demand (tools and equipments) derived assuming it is make to stock and assemble to order scenario? I know, most of these companies run heavily on ERPs such as SAP and Oracle, but what are the typical planning tools they use?

I know, they sell jobs and services, which would be a product + services wrapped around it and there is a significant amount of variation of what these jobs constitute across regions… for example, the same kind of job would constitute very different set of tools and equipments, if it has to be deployed in two different regions – for example say mexico and north sea. So there are lot of such industry specific nuances that are very relevant while designing a demand planning process.

Looking for point of views from folks who have worked in this sector and can provide me relevant pointers. Please feel free to comment anything, and I would really appreciate if you can share your experience. I would be more than happy to discuss one on one over a telephonic conversation, so please do respond, if you think you know what I am asking for ….

March 31, 2010

Pareto Theory in Supply Chain Implementation

The Pareto theory resonates among all of us, specifically the Supply Chain consultants. Based on general experience, it is usually a few deviants that take all of one's attention. Not only do these deviants get all the attention, they make the process and the solution to deal with general elements very complex.

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March 2, 2010

Are Demand Planners stressed out these days?

Well, this blog of mine is focused very specifically to ‘demand planning’ role in a supply chain organization. Most of us would appreciate the difficult conflicting goals that a demand planner faces in industry, and I believe, it is becoming increasingly more stressful for them to manage these goals. Being a demand planner myself in the past, I can empathize with their pain and would like to share few operational challenges that add to their stress levels, if not attended effectively. I would urge each one of you to provide your experience, comments, and advise how demand planners can effectively work to mitigate these issues to improve business performance. Read on…

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February 24, 2010

Supply Chain Predictions for 2010 - how far are we from our end-state vision?

Last month, Infosys got a call from Supply Chain Digest magazine, courtesy the editor-in-chief Dan Gilmore to air our views on the key trends for Supply Chain Management in 2010. Supply Chain Guru Predictions for 2010 published earlier this month covered a set of 5 other eminent folks from MIT, Gartner, Descartes and so on, so I was happy for the opportunity to be featured amongst these industry thought leaders.

As primarily a package supply chain enabler, I stuck to my knitting and covered my theme along two lines (a) Improving efficiencies in the back-end supply chain to reduce costs and (b) Enhancing end-customer experience by augmenting the front-end supply chain. People ask me where the relentless pressure to slay every efficiency killer would end up. What next after Multi-channel commerce, end2end procurement, green asset management... whither goes SCM end-state?

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February 21, 2010

Chasing the right Q or "Cue" on your CFRs

Often times, organizations hold CFR or the Customer Fulfilment Rate as one of the key meterics Customer Service Organization are measured against. Certain best-in-class supply chains boast of CFRs in their high nineties. However one question that all organizations should answer is - what is the quality of the CFRs ?

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February 3, 2010

Dilemma of Supply Chain Planning in an Allotment scenario - 4

In continuation with earlier blogs, we had an interesting set of conversations in the past one month within the project team. One of the ideas through the brainstorming and subsequent brain-streamlining session, was to provide capability in the tool to store realtime Allotment limits in the sales order. An interesting revelation was that one could arrive at this figure only if we use another parameter called the Checking Horizon.

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January 24, 2010

Checking Horizon: The confluence of ATP and Planning

One of the most interesting business discussions in any Available-To-Promise (ATP) project is that on Checking Horizon. This seemingly unassuming horizon, determines the timeline within which supplies are actually assessed against demands. The supply within the horizon is valuated as feasible, and thus a Sales Order within this horizon can be truly promised. A Sales Order outside of this horizon is deemed always feasible assuming that the supply chain can always react to the demand without any constraint.

 

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January 8, 2010

Supplier and Customer Collaboration

Over the last few years supplier collaboration is gaining prominence and lot of data sharing is happening with the suppliers helping them to plan their manufacturing capacity better. It has helped the suppliers meet the requirements and ensuring adequate inventory control. Supplier collaboration has become an important supply chain initiative across different industries and corporations have realized the benefits. Of late there seems to be surge in the supplier collaboration initiatives as organizations want to follow the example of others who have done it and have achieved significant benefits.

Organizations who have gone ahead with supplier collaborations- have not done so on the customer collaboration side (or the number of organizations who have done is far less- I am referring to non VMI scenarios)- sharing replenishment data with their customers.

Customer collaboration can be at a strategic level whereby an organization can work with its customers’ long term plans to develop new products & services, enhance its capacities and thereby ensuring strategic customer relevance. 

Customer collaboration can also be at an operational or tactical level wherein customer forecasts, promotions and short term demand signals can be used to recalibrate the supply responses providing better service levels, lead times and flexibility. 

In operational   customer collaboration it will be the vendor who will inform the customer of the supply quantity that needs to be delivered as against the order quantity- this will help in demand supply balancing keeping inventory levels low.  If we take a VMI scenario, the situation is different. The common issue in VMI is less transparency with respect to the SKU and quantity being replenished by the vendors- this is primarily because very few companies share the forecast data and leave it to the vendor to replenish the SKUs based on the inventory position at the time of delivery- may be because they do not forecast for VMI items.

Customer collaboration would help in fine tuning the VMI process – for VMI to be effective, the retailer should share its SKU level forecasts for the VMI items with the CPG manufacturer and the manufacturer can share the data in terms of what will be replenished in the next delivery schedule. This will help smoothen the process and the customer can plan appropriately for the SKUs being delivered with respect to promotions, space management and warehouse management.

However the customer collaboration has still not caught up- as much as it is being done on the supplier side.

Probable reasons would be that organizations are not tuned to tell their customers

what quantity they would deliver which would help customers ensure proper inventory control- this would be possible if they look at the ordering pattern from their customer. It is still working based on an order from the customer about the quantity based on their business plan and the supplier supplying that quantity.

Having both supplier and customer collaboration would ensure that the extended enterprise works in a real partnership model and that there is free flow of information which will help in effective decision making and inventory control and cost savings. Hence I strongly feel that organizations should not restrict their collaboration on one side but should do it both at the supplier and customer end. Organizations which have had experience say in supplier collaboration- should focus on extending it to customer collaboration end- this will be more effective as they can bank upon their learning while doing supplier collaboration.

It would be interesting to understand from you if you have done both supplier and customer collaboration and how has it benefited your organization and also the challenges faced.

 

January 2, 2010

Demand Planning in the CPG industry- The decade that was

I wish the readers a very happy new year and a happy new decade. This morning, I was reminiscing on my journey through the past decade, on how during the last 10 years I saw myself transition from a student to young professional to a doting husband to a responsible father. I concluded that life seemed much simpler 10-20 years back, in retrospect that is. Well, how is it connected to demand planning in the CPG industry (the topic of this blog)? You are right; there is no connection, except that demand planning in the CPG industry also underwent a transition during this decade, just as I did.

Continue reading "Demand Planning in the CPG industry- The decade that was" »

December 14, 2009

Dilemma of Supply Chain Planning in an Allotment scenario - 3

One very interesting aspect in an Allotment scenario is that of Price increases and decreases. In the last two blogs we saw the interesting phenomena of how Allotment situation works in a supply chain scenario. Price change is essentially done in two ways - one possible way is by informing the retailer in advance of an eminent price change at a pre-destined date. The other is by doing a mass inventory revaluation of the stock-on-hand that the retailer is carrying at that point in time- and then making a price adjustment of the existing stock across the board both in the books of retailer and that of the CPG organization. This might result in an accounts payable or receivable to/from the retailer to the CPG organization. The former is mostly done for price increases, while the latter for price reductions.

Continue reading "Dilemma of Supply Chain Planning in an Allotment scenario - 3" »

December 12, 2009

Dilemma of Supply Chain Planning in an Allotment scenario - 2

Another unique challenge is Pricing of CPG products in an allotment scenario. As mentioned in the last blog, allotment of products to different demand streams is done under unique business situations i.e promotions, a genuine supply constraint or for doing very focused test-marketing. Pricing is a CPG context is very complex and is proportionate to the order volume and the tier of the customer. Customers who order in Full-Truckload are passed on logistical benefits by pricing a unit in conformance with the best possible price. Likewise, the Mom and Pop stores or small time retailers, who may order in less-than truckload may not get the best unit price.

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December 11, 2009

Dilemma of Supply Chain Planning in an Allotment scenario - 1

The Supply Chain tool of SAP is being implemented in one of the leading CPG organizations of the world by Infosys. While most of the capabilities of this tool meets business requirements, there are a few critical business requirements that have not been met and this is a first hand account of what the issue is and where we can potentially go from here.

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November 27, 2009

Buffett’s bet on railroads- basically, a bet on America?

Hope you had a great time with your family this Thanksgiving. For me, Thanksgiving was an excuse to maximize my time with my family before they left for India this coming Sunday on a three month long vacation.

Anyway, coming to the topic of this blog, today I watched this amazing show on CNBC called Warren Buffett and Bill Gates - Keeping America Great, where the two greatest legends of the current times took questions from Columbia B-School students on various topics ranging from the economy to philanthropy.

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November 21, 2009

The Death of DRP- an eyewitness’ account

I simply loved reading Lora Cecere’s blog titled The Death of DRP. I loved it, because it brought me a feeling of déjà vu. You see, for the past few years, I was part accomplice and part eyewitness to the slow murder, while working on a supply chain transformation program for a leading CPG.

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November 12, 2009

Demand sensing- is it a solution to capacity planning or near term deployment planning problem?

I came across an interesting blog on Kinaxis website which talks about the importance of demand sensing especially during the post recession recovery period (Is the supply chain finally being recognized by the mainstream as a strategic capability of a company?)  It talks about how Nokia could have avoided Q3 loss of $832 m, had it utilized demand sensing capabilities to sense demand upturn and accordingly adjust capacity well in advance. Using demand sensing, they could have (theoretically) looked at the future customer orders (or other leading indicators) and sensed that they are hitting them faster than their forecasted pace and used that information to identify the future capacity issues. However, I feel, even with a good demand sensing system in place, Nokia would have still faced the problem. To elaborate further, let me first explain how demand sensing system works.

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November 9, 2009

A big fat geek wedding- JDA weds i2

On Nov 5, JDA Software Group announced its plan to acquire i2 Technologies  in a cash and stock deal of $396 m. The merger is said to bring in net annual cost synergies to the tune of $20m and help elevate JDA as a leading supply chain management software company with combined revenue of $617 m and EBITDA of $179 m. Unlike last year, when the much touted deal broke off due to JDA stating inability to borrow money, this time around, the deal  has been structured to ensure a high degree of completion certainty (through Plan A- Intended Structure and Plan B-Alternative structure). The deal is expected to close by Q1 of 2010.

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November 5, 2009

S&OP Process – Do whatever suits you best!!!

S&OP has been talked about a lot almost everywhere and anywhere. The point of view that I am going to share through this blog is that there is no defined and one-single way to manage S&OP process. At least, this is what I have seen across various organizations in multiple industry segments. We have read about S&OP processes in books and various public domains, and almost everywhere the approach has been fairly generic, standard and uniform, but when it comes to real-world scenario, each organization takes a unique approach towards S&OP. I will share my opinion on critical success factors for an effective S&OP process and how organizations have been doing it differently. Read on….

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November 4, 2009

My 6 cents on S&OP best practices

In my earlier blog (Office politics and forecasting), I talked about how office politics contributes to forecast bias and how it can be overcome by implementation of a well designed S&OP process. In this blog, I will talk about some of the best practices I have come across in S&OP.

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October 28, 2009

So is SCM Transformation an Oxymoron or a Holy Grail to aspire to?

Transformation is a much-used (abused?) word these days. So, when I read Bob Ferrari's guest column at our blog site (http://www.infosysblogs.com/supply-chain/2009/10/resolving_the_constant_debate.html), something I keep wondering periodically came to my mind again - Is SCM Tranformation an oxymoron or is it actually a valid proposition? The context the word "transformation" is used currently refers to mega-sized, multi-year, multi-million, global-scale, rip-everything-off & replace programs. Since SCM is inherently an outside-in domain, the typical definitions of transformation may not apply.

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October 22, 2009

Office politics and forecasting...

Say ‘office politics’ loud, close your eyes, and meditate on it for a few minutes. What comes to your mind? Taking credit for someone else’s work, showing favoritism, indulging in mudslinging are a few thoughts that come to my mind immediately. Whatever form it may take, the motive seems to be the same- achieving personal success at the cost of another competing colleague.  However, today I am going to blog about another interesting form of office politics that touches a critical process within any company- that of forecasting future demand.

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September 11, 2009

The unentertaining game of Chinese Whispers in the world of consumer products supply chain- Part 2: Measures to effectively channel demand variability

In the previous post we discussed how small variations in demand at the consumer end get amplified as the retailers and manufacturers play the game of ‘Chinese Whispers’.  In this post we will discuss some of the steps that the retailers and manufacturers are taking to counter the behavior. While some of these measures require simple changes in policies, others require significant investments in processes. 

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August 27, 2009

The unentertaining game of Chinese Whispers in the world of consumer products supply chain

Ever played the game of Chinese Whispers and wondered how a simple message can get completely distorted as it passes through several ears? Well, demand variability in the business is caused due to a phenomenon that is somewhat similar, only that instead of a phrase, the buying pattern of the end consumer passes through several layers of the supply chain with increasing degree of variability at each layer, causing swings in demand as it propagates upstream through the supply chain.

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August 26, 2009

Supply Chain “Proverbs-to-ponder”

IDENTIFYING CAUSES FOR UNSUSTAINABLE BEHAVIOR

Efforts for sustaining supply chain benefits have been under fire. Business requires supply chain programs for implementing their strategies. Variability, especially uncertainties in operations dim the chances for even the best solutions to return results in a consistent manner. Sustainability, is taking center-stage for CXOs and I see them scramble for ideas that have demonstrated results.

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July 15, 2009

Periodic Assessment of your planning systems

It is extremely common in any organization to maintain status quo and not review the deployed solutions periodically unless the results are awfully incorrect having a significant business impact. Given the current economic downturn, it would be extremely critical to assess the performance of your advanced planning systems which help you to achieve a good balance between demand and supply while optimizing your inventory. The planning system would have been implemented a few years back or in boom time. Hence the solution configured in the planning system would not have factored in bad times. This becomes critical- as the results churned out of the planning system may not be in sync with the current business environment which would lead to bad decision or too much of manual intervention is necessary for review and modifications.

It is extremely important that the solution deployed is reviewed not only in such bad times but also periodically in order to ensure that the results are in line with the constantly changing business environment. For example, it is extremely necessary to review the different planning parameters which act as input to your planning engine. For example, safety stock levels you would want to maintain during different business environment would be much different- ranging from days of coverage to say statistical/dynamic. These parameters which are input to your planning engine will impact the results what you get.

Having this planning system audit or health check should form a part of your yearly or half yearly planning process review. This would ensure that you take corrective actions at appropriate times and even if no major correction is required, it will also give you opportunities to fine tune the solution deployed. Most of the times, there will not be a need for major changes and what will be required is slight tweaking of the solution.

Lot of times, organizations do get this opportunity when they have to upgrade to a new version of the software. In these cases rather than just doing a technical upgrade, the opportunity should be used to do a proper assessment of the solution while performing the upgrade.

I would like to understand if your organizations are doing it- and if yes the benefits realized. If no, what are the challenges/difficulties for not doing.

June 3, 2009

Poll on next generation of requirements from Supply Chain tools?

What are your present day challenges from supply chain tools you have? In which technological area of supply chain would  your next investment spend go? If you had a wishlist of expectations from supply chain tools, which ones would make it to top three ?
Well most of the supply chain tool vendors are coming up with their roadmaps of the future based on specific trends in the market. It is important that supply chains keep their tools as current as possible since it provides a great competitive edge to an organization. Participate in our on-going Supply Chain polls, that assesses the most popular features that organizations are vying for in their supply chain tools.

May 26, 2009

Resolving the puzzle of achieving Higher Service Levels and Lower Inventory Levels through Faster Demand Sensing!!

I had talked about how to do forecasting during recession in my earlier blog here. During my discussions with end users the common feedback has been that frequent forecasting can help in faster sensing of demand, it doesn’t help in reducing inventories. Some of the most common questions emerging from end users on short term frequent forecasting are –  

• How to deal with lead times which are longer than the forecasting period?
• How do I change my safety stock levels? Do I need to?
• How will my service levels will be affected?
• How shall I deal with larger demand variation in granular level forecasting?

Continue reading "Resolving the puzzle of achieving Higher Service Levels and Lower Inventory Levels through Faster Demand Sensing!!" »

May 1, 2009

An Approach to Effective APO Demand Planning Design

APO Demand Planning offers great set of functionalities tuned to very popular business requirements. The key is to come up with a design that takes care of multiple dimensions including Scale & Scope management, Product Life-cycle Management and finally a platform to manually att value to the Statistical Forecast planning process. APO Demand Planning also offers extensions and customizations that can meet some of the complex and atypical business requirements. The end objective of a DP implementation is to make sure that the planners use the tool and make them more productive than before. These thoughts have been summarized in an insightful technical white paper prepared specially for different stakeholders in a DP project.

April 22, 2009

DNA Therapy for Strategic Cost Reduction in Supply Chains

My recent hunt for stem cell banking information in South India got me excited on a subject of high interest in the biomedical world. Stem cell therapy is the latest medical wonder discovery and supposed to be a cure for 70 odd complex maladies of humans, especially interesting because till late these ill’s were supposed be hard to win over with the conventional medical treatment methods - treatments which were more focused on treatment of the symptom or providing a patch solution for the life threatening diseases, not usually a permanent cure.

DNA is the building block of all life and living on this planet. They are the smallest finite elements which determine the characteristic and personality of any individual. DNA or gene therapy gets to the root cause of the problem. They provided the paradigm shift in medical treatment from the symptomatic treatment of the yesteryears to treating or correcting the diseases cells at source.

What has DNA therapy got to do with Supply Chain Management?

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April 20, 2009

Planning in Recessionary times

According to different economic studies, recession is here to stay at least for the next one year. Discretionary spendings is expected to be the most affected since people are now scrambling to meet basic requirements. Businesses across the world are remodeling themselves, trying to be as lean, tightly controlling their expenditure and keeping their focus on existing markets. Investment budgets too are the most affected which earlier used to be one of the most important tools at the hands of CXOs to improve productivity in their organization.

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April 13, 2009

What’s the right forecasting approach in the current business environment?

I am talking about short term operational forecasting here, since that’s the one that drives business on an ongoing basis and has a direct impact on the financial performance of an organization. Forecasting has been a very statistically driven exercise with too much weightage given to quantitative techniques. Quantitative techniques take historical data as the reference or basis for forecasting, and therefore, the results are acceptable as long as the industry and other players work in similar economic environmental conditions. Now, when the consumer demand is extremely volatile and sentiments are down across almost all the industry segments, the historical consumer sales data cannot be considered as the right reference for generating forecasts. And therefore, dependence on quantitative techniques may not be the right approach and might lead to serious consequences such as rise in excess and obsolete inventory, increase in blocked working capital and finally, shortfall in achieving sales targets.

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March 23, 2009

What every "Supply Chain" boardroom should be thinking...

Image this. In one of your S&OP cycle meetings, Mr A from Demand Planning makes an adjustment to the Forecasting numbers of product X. Very recently he has been given to understand from the Engineering department that product X will be getting superceded by product Y in unforeseen future. Mr B from sales believes supply chain to be completely elastic. He expects supply chain to respond very quickly to any demand surges without any loss of sales. Mr C from Supply Planning side has allocated resources and materials in the supply chain based on product X's converted demand in the market. In many cases Mr C has been reprimanded for taking a conservative approach that results in stocks being unavailable when it is time to make hay. While Mr A has been experiencing the phenomena called "I perhaps know more than others", Mr B believes in "Stretch and compress the supply chain at will", Mr C has been experiencing a phenomena called "falling short today and hence make up by tomorrow". Sounds familiar ? It is. All of us are familiar with a situation where each team member believes in local maxima agnostic to global maxima.

 

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February 23, 2009

Power Supply and the Supply Chain - Part 2

In one of my earlier blogs, I had drawn a hypothetical comparison between a power production process and a best-in-class supply chain. We saw how supply and demand situation can result in a stable equilibrium. A stable equilibrium is defined as an interplay of balancing forces where any deviation from normal, results in greater propensity for self-restoration.

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February 17, 2009

How do I forecast during Recession?

In a client meeting on Friday – the 13th, I encountered a “scary” statement!! The category manager told me that his gut forecast was more accurate than the one generated by his ‘expensive forecasting system’ for last quarter or so. The symptom was recent and the forecast was going away by as much as 40%!!! Could this be symptom of a recession? How do I forecast during such times? Complex algorithms are far more powerful in finding out hidden patterns and extrapolates them beyond the capacity of human mind. Then why would such powerful models fail to detect a recession which is so obvious?

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February 16, 2009

Managing organizational issues is the key for a successful S&OP

Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) is an integral component of an organization’s planning process that drives both revenue enhancement and cost control. Although it is not new to the industry, its deployment in the true sense varies, with only a very few organizations which have implemented this in practice to achieve full benefits. Companies usually face lots of challenges while S&OP is being deployed that can be bucketed under Process-Technology-Organization dimensions. Although we may follow any list that captures the critical Dos and Don’ts of a successful S&OP implementation, I feel the real challenges lie under the “Organization” bucket and need the top most priority since all the other challenges are directly or indirectly connected to one or more organizational issue/s.

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January 19, 2009

Multi-Level Vendor planning in APO: Your means to control the extended supplier network

One of the grave challenges companies, specifically in the area of consumer electronics and Hi-tech, face today is the reality of diverse and multi-echelon supplier network. The different tiers in the network are core competent in different aspects of manufacturing the product, and usually are driven by their own set of KPIs which may or may not be in alignment with network level. OEMs of today's world thus have to grapple with co-coordinating the right supply of materials and capacity to cater to a fluctuating set of demands in the customer side of the network. They have to balance with two counteracting objectives of controlling inventory/obsolescence cost on one hand and fill rate of demands to the customer on the other.

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January 17, 2009

Nextgen requirements from Supply Chain tools

Faster, stronger and higher - these words sound great for a sporting event. Every year records are broken, new ones are set and everytime individuals and corporations alike have broken barriers thought to be unsurmountable. At the same time there have been individuals and corporations that have fallen like pack of cards due to intimidating challenges either of their own making or due to external business conditions. While businesses are constantly reinventing to survive, running faster to stay at the same place, growing stronger to stay afloat among competitors and climbing higher to protect its position in the market, one of the key elements of survival for businesses of today is to keep its supply chain competitive.

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January 2, 2009

Ownership of forecasting function

Organizations treat forecasting function differently based on their maturity levels; with a lagging organization having an ad-hoc approach to the entire process. There is hardly any focus on forecasting process and a dominant function decides the final numbers that also keeps changing and always remains a moving target. On the other hand, a mature supply chain organization would try to incorporate systems in place to ensure that forecasting as a process works fine and achieves the overall business objectives. I have seen and experienced that “right ownership” of this process is a very important and critical element to ensure that the forecasts are not biased and serves its desired purpose.

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January 1, 2009

Attribution Analysis in Supply Chain

Supply Chain function in most organizations is multi-faceted and requires management through a complex hierarchical organizational structure. At one end are Forecasters who manage the most upstream function and at the other end are executioners (production and procurement managers) who manage the most downstream function of supply chain. These functions have evolved over a period of time, found to be most optimal and is based on simple principle of segregation of duties.

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November 22, 2008

The Other Side of Supply Chain

Supply chains have been traditionally linear in nature. Let me explain what I mean by a linear chain.

Raw materials are procured from sources such as vendors, transformed into a sub-assembly and/or into a finished good again at  factory and transported to a distribution center or a warehouse. The number of echelons in the chain vary based on industry structure and resulting dynamics. Each echelon adds a finite value by either transforming the product into something more worthy of consumption or moving it closer to a consumer. This chain quickly became a network when organizations felt strongly about leveraging core-competencies of other organizations and developing one of their own.

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October 9, 2008

The Closed-loop Supply Chain Strategy

OK, what came first - the chicken or an egg? Well, for most it does not matter and as for others – they probably don’t care, though the question continues to draw quite an attention from many a curious mind. However, what’s interesting is that one cannot live without the other, and in fact one emanates from the other as a never ending inter-looping hierarchical chain. This chain is a logical chain and is also a genetic chain. The DNA of the chain keeps evolving getting refined and in many ways better as the right feedback gets factored into the chain. No wonder then the “chickens” of today are probably smarter than their predecessors.

 

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September 20, 2008

The Right Level for measuring the Right Forecast Errors

Many organizations have complex multi-level hierarchies for forecasting not only in the product dimension but also in geographical dimension. One of the standard practicies in most organizations is to do Bottom-up forecasting, followed by Middle-out forecasting and Top-down forecasting. The forecasting done at lower level of detail is very crucial since it determines the proportional factors for forecasts done at higher level. In other words, forecasts at lower level of detail helps come up with the right mix. Forecasting done at higher level helps come up with the right volume.

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September 16, 2008

Criteria in choosing the holistic Forecasting System

Forecasting has been rated as one of the top supply chain issues in the globalized world. Organizations are striving to predict customer demand as accurately as possible. Accurate forecasting kick-starts demand and supply chain planning. A large number of products-geography-customer combinations require system enabled forecasting capabilities. A holistic forecasting system brings in Statistical Rigour and Modeling, Dashboards and Simulation capabilities and automatically tunes its models to suit changing business requirements. Sharing here excerpts from one of our working paper – the criteria in choosing the holistic forecasting system.

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September 1, 2008

Caveats in a Forecasting System implementation project

Let me start with a clichéd statement - forecasting drives supply in your network. It sets the tone of supply chain planning. In many different contexts, we have heard about what different proponents of forecasting are saying- a one percent improvement in forecast accuracy saves sometimes millions of dollars in inventory and other short-term working capital requirements. Granted all this holds lot of water and consequently, we will probably have millions of dollars spent in forecasting and related consulting projects in coming years.

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Effectiveness of Planning

Accuracy of the supply and demand planning forecasts for direct sourcing and allocation is very important for an integrated and effective Supply Chain.We run into many scenarios when the forecast figures at a company level are either too conservative or inaccurate and that leads to lots of issues while planning for the downstream activities.One process consulting approach could be to slice and dice the historical data and present the output of the analysis to the planning team to adjust or if needed revamp the planning models and approach used.What can be the variety of approaches that can be used to streamline the planning processes in this scenario?

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